2025 Oscar predictions: who should win and who will win

In one of the most open and open Oscar races In years, choosing winners is like walking a tightrope on a well of rubbing scandals.

As soon “Emilia Pérez” -A drama of the musical crime in Spanish of a French director-recording most of the nominations (13) of any film this year of what its possibilities were bewitched by Resurrected tweets From the film’s star, Karla Sofía Gascón, The First openly trans actress To write down an interim nomination.

Although Gascón has zinc apologized for his commentsMany have wondered if the damage is unsurpassed.

Then there is the controversy around “The Brutalist” – With 10 nominations, including the best image- for Use of artificial intelligence To help the nominees acted, Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones in the few scenes where Hungaros had to speak.

And what happens “Anora” – With six nominations, including the best image- Filming all these sex scenes without an intimacy coordinator, as revealed by the star and the interim nominated Mikey Madison in a Variety chat?

And the musical blockbuster “Wicked“Does the first prize really deserve if it is only part 1 of a film that will not be complete until it is launched in November?

Clearly, these problems have absolutely anything to do with the quality of the nominees themselves. The Film Academy is always worried about how it looks towards the outside world. Even so, the heated battle between the image and merit only adds to fun, especially in a super competitive year like this when it comes to discovering how almost 10,000 voters of the Oscar will reach a consensus is more a rake than ever.

The Oscar 2025 will take place on Sunday, March 2, will be broadcast live in ABC and broadcasting live in Hulu from 7 pm et.

Let the games begin with my predictions on who should win, and who will win, in the main categories.

• Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”)
• Timothée Chalamet (“A complete stranger”)
• Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”)
• Ralph Fiennes (“conclave”)
• Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”)

I should win (if the public voted): Timothée Chalamet (“A complete stranger”)

Chalamet’s performance as the young Bob Dylan is acting, singing, a guitar perfection and the harmonica blows.

And just a week ago, after seeing Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”) to take most of the critics awards, he finally took a great rest with a significant victory of his teammates in the Guild of actors of Screen Actors to transcend the impersonation of impersonation in a portrait of Warts and All that also captures the arrogance of the petulants of the future winner of the future winner of the prize whose music The raw voice helped define generation. Chalamet transport yield catches Dylan in the stimulating act of inventing as crowds, a fugitive troubadour and poet that is always creating and always in the wind.

If Chalamet, before in the same category for “Call Me by Your Name” of 2017, the Oscar wins on Sunday night, will become, at 29, the youngest nominee to win the prize for the best actor, surpassing the head of the previous record of Brody for nine months and change.

Will win: Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”)

Sorry Timmy, but the one who overcome remains Brody: the current head of the winner of the best youngest actor (it was a month less than his 30th birthday when he won the Oscar for “The Pianist” of 2002 as a musician Władysław Szpilman, a Polish Jew who survived the invasion of Nazi from Warsaw.

Brody even exceeds that triumph of his career with his “brutalist” interpretation of László Tóth, a Jewish and surviving architect of the holocaust born in Hungarian who arrives in the United States after the war with an explosion of anticipation and fear. Act does not improve or deepen that the emotional tour of Force given by Brody, who carries each fiber of his being to the role of his career.

A second Oscar seems inevitable.

• Cynthia Erivo (“Wicked”)
• Karla Sofía Gascón (“Emilia Pérez”)
• Mikey Madison (“Anora”)
• Demi Moore (“the substance”)
• Fernanda Torres (“I’m still here”)

I should win: Mikey Madison (“Anora”)

Probabilities favor Madison. Let me explain.

While Oscar traditionally causes men to wait until they have a certain age, the golden statue practically rises to a young beauty in an innovative part. I’m talking about Audrey Hepburn (“Holiday Roman”) to Gwyneth Paltrow (“Shakespeare in Love”) and Jennifer Lawrence (“Silver Linings Play Book”). So why not grant the crown to Madison, 25, to accelerate the main role in “Anora” like the Stripper/Sex Worker who falls in love with his own fantasy of marrying a handsome Prince, in this case the son of a Russian oligarch, and lives happily forever.

The comic and dramatic skills that Madison contributes to the paper is really dignified.

Will win: Demi Moore (“the substance”)

The only thing Oscar loves more than a discovery is a return, and Moore practically defined the term when noting his first nomination in 62 for “The Substance”, the horror catarra of Coralie Fargeat about Hollywood’s greatest fear: aging.

During his victory speech in the Golden Globes, Moore talked about being fired as a “corn popcorn” who should stay in his lane. By no means. For overcoming the vanity to find the bruised heart of a character that literally divides in half to preserve the illusion of timeless charm, Moore spoke with all those who felt banished to oblivion for the first sign of a wrinkle. He also found his best two hours on the screen.

How does the Oscar resist? Two words: he does not.

Best Actor on a secondary role

• Yura Borisov (“Anora”)
• Kieran Culkin (“A True Pain”)
• Edward Norton (“A complete stranger”)
• Guy Pearce (“The Brutalist”)
• Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”)

I should win: Jeremy Strong (“The Apprentice”)

The “Succession” Emmy winner is evil embodied as Roy Cohn, the dark prince of a lawyer who served as an architect of the rise of Donald Trump before he even seriously considered politics. The three commandments for Cohn’s success certainly stayed with their apprentice, played by the nominated for best actor Sebastian Stan: “Attack, attack, attack; they admit anything, they deny everything; and always claims the victory, never recognizes defeat.” Strong plays Cohn with a demonic humor that makes each laugh laugh, even those who sow the seeds of his own discussion.

Strong finds a path to Cohn’s abused soul in a film that did not deserve his box office negligence. It would be difficult to overcome, except for …

Will win: Kieran Culkin (“A True Pain”)

The winner of the Emmy of the “Succession”, he and Strong played the brothers in the historical series, is in the wrong category since his is a main performance in all the senses of the word as a misfit called Benji on a holocaust tour of Poland, where his late grandmother escaped from the death fields. The director Jesse Eisenberg, who wrote the script worthy of an Oscar for this fun, moving and vital drama, plays the cousin that accompanies Benji on the trip. There is no manipulative, Santona and false note in the great performance of Culkin out of the quantities.

Forget the fraud of the category, if there is a safe one among this year’s Oscar nominated, Culkin is.

Best actress on a secondary role

• Monica Barbaro (“A complete stranger”)
• Ariana Grande (“Wicked”)
• Felicity Jones (“The Brutalist”)
• Isabella Rossellini (“conclave”)
• Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”)

I should win: Isabella Rossellini (“conclave”)

If you want to know what a real support performance is, see the magnificent Rossellini as sister Agnes, the only woman in this cardinal conclave for men in the timely business to choose a new Pope. Critics say that Rossellini only has a great dialogue scene, not enough to calm victory. Nonsense. She creates a woman as a whole in the space between words.

This is a first nomination for the gifted daughter of actress Ingrid Bergman and director Roberto Rossellini, and emerges as the moral conscience of the film and her afflicted heart.

Will win: Zoe Saldaña (“Emilia Pérez”)

Do not expect the controversies to revolve around their film and his co -star Gascó de hurt that Saldaña has to take home his first Oscar.

Like the lawyer in the center of history, just a secondary role, Saldaña demonstrates that it is more than the dynamo of action of the “Avatar” franchise and the Marvel film universe, but an actress of Hug and Grace. He could even boost his sensational song and dance, “El Evil”, to a best song Oscar.

Where Rossellini becomes small, Saldaña becomes large and, just or not, the size of his representation must tip the balance in his favor.

Best photo

• “Anora”
• “The Brutalist”
• “A complete stranger”
• “Conclave”
• “Dune: Part two”
• “Emilia Pérez”
• “I’m still here”
• “Nickel Boys”
• “The substance”
• “Wicked”

I should win: “The Brutalist”

Through any measurement of talent and roaring ambition, the intimate epic of director Brady Corbet about the experience of immigrants in the United States is the best image of the year. “Anora” and “Conclave” are breathing through their neck, but the technical aspects of cinematography to the score are first category and the direction of the Best Corbet category and the performance of Brody, Jones and Guy Peace establish a new gold standard. The crucial complaint is that “the brutalist” is too long at three hours and 35 minutes. The length did not hurt “Oppenheimer” and should not be a problem here, except for the growing plague of brief sections of attention.

So, unless Oscar’s voters return in their senses and do the right thing, I am granting defeat.

Will win: “Conclave” … in a chip victory over “Anora”

I await a dead heat on Oscar night, with the saints of the “Concentraimo” who has just overcome the sinners of “Anora”. Any of which could prevail. “Anora” showed a recent increase in claiming victory in the influential guilds of producers and directors: Sean Baker’s love letter to sex workers is definitely the choice of great children. But the backward voters, who bleach sex, drugs and pumps

It is a currency launch, which should make us contain our breathing in the big night.

What could be better? Place your bets.

The Oscar 2025 will take place on Sunday, March 2, will be broadcast live in ABC and broadcasting live in Hulu from 7 pm et.

Disney is the parent company of Hulu, ABC and “Good Morning America.